SPC Feb 4, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 4, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the western states on Sunday,
taking on a positive tilt overnight across the Four Corners states.
Strong cooling aloft will occur north of the midlevel jet max during
the day over northern CA and NV, and heating may lead to weak
instability. Scattered convective showers and a few thunderstorms
are anticipated over coastal northern CA, and from the central
valleys into the Sierra where westerly upslope may aid lift. Severe
weather is unlikely due to weak low-level wind fields, however, cold
air aloft may support graupel.

Elsewhere, rain showers and a few thunderstorms may occur over parts
of the FL Peninsula, where weak lift may develop in association with
an upper trough extending south into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Mid 60s F dewpoints and heating will lead to weak instability, but
midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm strength. The
veering low-level jet will likely focus most of the convection over
the Atlantic Ocean as well.

..Jewell.. 02/04/2023

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SPC Feb 4, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 4, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Northern CA...
A shortwave impulse embedded within a broader northeast Pacific
upper trough will impinge on the northern half of the CA coast
tonight. The warm conveyor region ahead of this wave will yield an
eastward-moving precipitation band crossing the coast this evening
and into the Sierras tonight. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop
within the upslope flow regime along the western Sierras and support
very isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, cooling mid-level
temperatures and steepening lapse rates will foster scant
surface-based instability along the northern CA coast in the early
morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible; embedded within
scattered, post-frontal low-topped convection. 

...Southeast FL...
Very poor mid-level lapse rates of 4-5 C/km sampled in 12Z observed
soundings will curtail thunderstorm potential today. Low-level flow
will shift from east-northeasterlies to southeasterlies tonight and
result in gradual moistening. This should support scattered
low-topped showers overnight with perhaps a thunderstorm or two in
the early morning.

..Grams/Lyons.. 02/04/2023

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.

..Squitieri.. 02/04/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023/

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward from the
central/southern Plains into the middle MS Valley, while a weak cold
front moves southward across the southern High Plains. Modest
downslope warming/drying and breezy surface winds in the vicinity of
the front could yield locally elevated conditions over portions of
the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, the stronger
surface winds will generally be displaced east of the more
substantial RH reductions -- precluding Elevated highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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