SPC Dec 8, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Dec 8, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2019

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that cold and stable
post-frontal conditions will keep the majority of the CONUS free of
thunderstorms on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. Guidance is also in
good consensus that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move
across the southern US on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. However,
guidance is showing large variability (both model-to-model and
run-to-run) regarding the strength, speed, and track of this system,
limiting predictability from D6/Friday through D8/Sunday.

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SPC Dec 8, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Dec 8, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2019

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large and deep upper trough will likely cover the majority of the
CONUS early Tuesday morning. A southern-stream shortwave trough
embedded within the larger upper trough is expected to move across
TX throughout the period, reaching the Lower MS Valley by early
Wednesday morning. 

The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a
cold front extending from western NY southwestward to the TX Gulf
Coast. This front is forecast to progress eastward across much of
the eastern CONUS throughout the period. By 12Z Wednesday, this
front will likely be located from just off the NC coast
southwestward across northern FL and into the central Gulf of
Mexico. 

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are anticipated along and
behind the southern portion of this front, from the upper TX coast
across the Southeast states. Given that the southern-stream
shortwave trough will lag behind the front, relatively warm
mid-level temperatures are expected to be in place, limiting
instability. Despite robust vertical shear over the region, this
limited instability will temper storm strength and prevent storms
from reaching severe thresholds.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2019

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SPC Dec 6, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Dec 6, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected this period.

...Gulf Coast Region...
A strong and progressive shortwave trough over AR/LA will track
across the Gulf Coast states today, with an associated cluster of
showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of MS/AL/GA/FL.  The
low-level air mass ahead of the convection is not particularly
unstable and low-level wind fields are weak.  Therefore, storms are
expected to have limited intensity and pose little risk of severe
wind or hail.

...Pacific Northwest...
A large upper trough is approaching the CA/OR coast, with the
initial band of precipitation moving ashore this morning.  Cooling
temperatures aloft and persistent onshore flow will eventually pose
a risk of deep convection and a few lightning strikes later this
afternoon and tonight. Some small hail cannot be ruled out in the
stronger cores, but no severe weather is forecast.

..Hart/Jewell.. 12/06/2019

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