SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level flow regime will continue across the CONUS
as the western US ridge is compressed and pushed east by a shortwave
trough moving onshore across California. Troughing across the
eastern US will intensify, bringing cooler than average conditions
to much of the East. At the surface, low pressure and a cold front
will move onshore and across the Great Basin while high pressure
strengthens in the Midwest.

...Great Basin...
Ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to move onshore early in the
day, gusty southerly winds are expected across portions of the Great
Basin. Increasing flow aloft should bolster surface winds to 15-20
mph through the afternoon. Warm surface temperatures in the 70s to
80s F should allow for minimum surface humidity in the 10-20% range.
Weak mid-level moisture advection ahead of the trough and associated
cold front may also support a few high-based thunderstorms later in
the day. Locally elevated fire weather conditions and isolated
lighting appear possible, but above average fuel moisture gives
little confidence on the severity and spatial coverage at this time.

..Lyons.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid-level flow pattern is forecast across the CONUS
through the Day1 forecast period. A broad cyclonic trough is
forecast to be centered over the Ohio Valley while a ridge of high
pressure builds across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a
cold front will slowly make its way off the eastern coast of the US
while a large are of high pressure is expected to remain stationary
across the central Rockies/Plains. With mid-level synoptic flow
displaced from much of the warmer and drier conditions across the
CONUS, little overlap of fire weather conditions is expected.
Localized gusty downslope winds across northern New Mexico may
support locally elevated fire weather potential this afternoon and
evening. However, above average fuel moisture from recent
precipitation should limit the threat.

..Lyons.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern Florida and
Atlantic coastal portions of the Florida peninsula Thursday, a few
of which may pose at least some risk for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the northern
mid-latitude Pacific will trend more zonal Thursday through Thursday
night.  However, it appears that mid-level troughing progressing
into the Pacific coast, and downstream ridging progressing across
the Rockies, will remain amplified on the leading edge of this
regime, impinging on large-scale downstream troughing entrenched
across eastern North America.  A broad mid-level low embedded within
this troughing is forecast to remain centered near James Bay, to the
west-southwest of a blocking high near the Labrador Sea.

Models continue to indicate that a series of smaller-scale short
wave perturbations, digging to the lee of the Rockies mid-level
ridging, will contribute to amplification of the large-scale
troughing, east of the lower Mississippi Valley through the south
Atlantic Seaboard.  It still appears that this will be accompanied
by substantive lower/mid tropospheric drying as far south and east
as the northern Gulf of Mexico and the waters east of the south
Atlantic coast by late Thursday night.  A surface cold front is
expected to advance south of northern Florida through central
portions of the Florida peninsula, displacing seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content southward.

...Florida...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow on the order of 30-40+ kt appears
likely to edge southward with the surface front, and perhaps a
pre-frontal outflow boundary, across northern Florida during the day
Thursday.  This will contribute to at least modest shear, as the
moist pre-frontal boundary layer destabilizes with insolation. 
Aided by increasingly cyclonic and difluent mid/high level flow, it
still appears that the environment may become at least marginally
conducive to organized thunderstorm development with the potential
to produce marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

Across central and southern portions of the peninsula, wind fields
are forecast to be generally weaker, but with more pronounced
veering with height in lower to mid-levels, along the sea breeze
developing near or inland of the Atlantic coast.  With this surface
boundary providing the focus for stronger low-level convergence,
forecast thermodynamic profiles exhibiting relatively steep
low-level lapse rates, sizable CAPE, and relatively dry mid-levels,
but with weak mid-level inhibition, may prove conducive to
thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe winds
and hail.

..Kerr.. 05/05/2021

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