SPC Feb 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across parts of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.

...01z update...
Mid-level moistening is underway this evening as evidenced by 00z
RAOBS across the lower OH River Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible as moistening and continued
isentropic ascent remove elevated inhibition. Confidence remains low
on the coverage of storms, but robust elevated buoyancy (1000-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE) rooted about 850mb and 40-50 kt of effective shear
would support a conditional risk for elevated supercells. Updated
CAM guidance continues to indicate some potential for isolated
stronger storms in one or more clusters near the OH River from
8-12z. Given the risk for hail with any stronger storms able to
become established, the MRGL risk will be maintained, with no
modification, late tonight into early Tuesday.

...Southwest...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a subtle perturbation within the
amplified subtropical jet passing over parts of the Southwest. Weak
broad-scale ascent from this feature and diurnal heating has
resulted in scattered, low-topped convection with occasional
lightning. With generally below 250 J/kg of MUCAPE, updrafts are not
expected to be particularly strong or long lived. However, a few of
these storms may continue into the evening and early overnight hours
across eastern AZ and southwestern NM as ascent shifts eastward.
General thunder probabilities have been added, given the potential
for weak destabilization and continuation of sporadic lightning
downstream late this evening.

..Lyons.. 02/27/2024

Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

Large-scale ridging aloft will overspread much of the central U.S.
during the middle/latter portions of the week. A southern stream
shortwave trough is forecast to eject out of northern Mexico into
the southern  Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. By early
Saturday, a potent upper-level trough will dig into the southwestern
U.S. and make quick progress through the Southwest into the southern
Plains by Sunday. Strong surface cyclones can be expected in the
Plains in association with this upper-level system.

...Southern High Plains...
The focus for potentially critical fire weather continues to be
focused on the southern High Plains as the next trough approaches
the region this coming weekend. Models continue general agreement on
the timing and structure of this large-scale feature. Confidence in
critical fire weather has increased on Saturday and a 40% area has
been added. Sunday continues to appear like the peak intensity of
the event. Continued model convergence does suggest that higher
probabilities may be needed in the coming days. At this time, there
is still enough potential for the timing and/or latitudinal position
of the trough to change that confidence in properly placing any
increased probabilities is limited. Further, a leading southern
stream shortwave trough may produce precipitation in parts of the
southern High Plains on Thursday. While amounts may remain minimal
to light for some areas, given some remaining dry air near the
surface, this also adds to the overall uncertainty.

..Wendt.. 02/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more