SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 Status Reports

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407

WW 407 SEVERE TSTM AL GA TN 010430Z - 010800Z
WW 0407 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  northern Alabama
  northwestern Georgia
  parts of middle and eastern Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1130 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms -- including a couple of stronger bowing
clusters -- will continue moving southeastward across the Tennessee
Valley area over the next couple of hours.  Locally damaging wind
gusts in excess of 58 MPH will be possible with stronger storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles either side of a line from 45 miles north northwest of
Muscle Shoals AL to 20 miles northeast of Chattanooga TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29040.

...Goss

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SPC MD 1409

SPC MD 1409

MD 1409 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/MIDDLE TN
MD 1409 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Areas affected...Western/middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010410Z - 010615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will likely accompany a bow as it tracks
southeast over the next 1-2 hours. Severe thunderstorm watch is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized bow has developed over western TN late
this evening. This convection is now surging southeast at 45-50kt
and is likely producing severe/damaging winds as it moves across
Henderson into Decatur County. Downstream convection is sagging
south ahead of this convection so it should be nudged toward Lewis
County along the southwestern flank of the middle TN storms. There
some concern an adequate cold pool has now formed such that this
activity could spread toward the AL border over the next few hours.

..Darrow/Goss.. 08/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35928853 35718722 35318727 35558853 35928853 

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SPC MD 1408

SPC MD 1408

MD 1408 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
MD 1408 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010315Z - 010515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are expected with convection across western
and middle Tennessee over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Northwest flow appears to be deepening/strengthening a
bit as heights fall within the base of Great Lakes/OH Valley upper
trough. Over the last few hours, an elongated band of broken
convection, about 30 miles wide, has developed from northeast
AR-western and middle TN. This activity is propagating southeast at
roughly 30-35kt within a reservoir of ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the
strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow, and the modest cold
pool that is noted with this convection, it appears these storms may
persist for several hours, possibly generating gusty winds at times.
However, a severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated, but will
continue to monitor this region.

..Darrow/Goss.. 08/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   36028946 36208791 36098579 35638551 35448709 35458910
            36028946 

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SPC Aug 1, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Aug 1, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS A PART OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging wind
gusts mainly from southeast Missouri to western Kentucky and western
Tennessee. A few strong to severe storms also remain possible late
tonight across a portion of eastern Virginia.

...Southeast Missouri through western Kentucky and western
Tennessee...

Thunderstorms that developed along a front/outflow boundary earlier
today continue southeast through southern MO into western KY and
western TN. This activity may continue to pose some risk for
isolated strong to severe gusts through mid evening. However,
overall threat is expected to remain somewhat marginal as the
boundary layer begins to stabilize. 

...Eastern Virginia...

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop across
central and southern VA the last few hours of the period. Some of
this activity may pose a threat for isolated severe gusts and a
conditional/low-end tornado potential.

..Dial.. 08/01/2021

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