SPC Feb 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z


Isolated late-night hail is possible across parts of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.

...01z update...
Mid-level moistening is underway this evening as evidenced by 00z
RAOBS across the lower OH River Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible as moistening and continued
isentropic ascent remove elevated inhibition. Confidence remains low
on the coverage of storms, but robust elevated buoyancy (1000-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE) rooted about 850mb and 40-50 kt of effective shear
would support a conditional risk for elevated supercells. Updated
CAM guidance continues to indicate some potential for isolated
stronger storms in one or more clusters near the OH River from
8-12z. Given the risk for hail with any stronger storms able to
become established, the MRGL risk will be maintained, with no
modification, late tonight into early Tuesday.

Evening water-vapor imagery shows a subtle perturbation within the
amplified subtropical jet passing over parts of the Southwest. Weak
broad-scale ascent from this feature and diurnal heating has
resulted in scattered, low-topped convection with occasional
lightning. With generally below 250 J/kg of MUCAPE, updrafts are not
expected to be particularly strong or long lived. However, a few of
these storms may continue into the evening and early overnight hours
across eastern AZ and southwestern NM as ascent shifts eastward.
General thunder probabilities have been added, given the potential
for weak destabilization and continuation of sporadic lightning
downstream late this evening.

..Lyons.. 02/27/2024

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Flood Warning issued February 26 at 7:59PM EST until February 29 at 11:30PM EST by NWS Charleston SC

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Savannah River near Clyo. * WHEN...Until late Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...At 13.3 feet, one foot of water covers Tom Goethe Road just after the pavement ends. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 715 PM EST Monday, the stage was 12.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday morning and continue falling to 6.5 feet Saturday evening. - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

Large-scale ridging aloft will overspread much of the central U.S.
during the middle/latter portions of the week. A southern stream
shortwave trough is forecast to eject out of northern Mexico into
the southern  Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. By early
Saturday, a potent upper-level trough will dig into the southwestern
U.S. and make quick progress through the Southwest into the southern
Plains by Sunday. Strong surface cyclones can be expected in the
Plains in association with this upper-level system.

...Southern High Plains...
The focus for potentially critical fire weather continues to be
focused on the southern High Plains as the next trough approaches
the region this coming weekend. Models continue general agreement on
the timing and structure of this large-scale feature. Confidence in
critical fire weather has increased on Saturday and a 40% area has
been added. Sunday continues to appear like the peak intensity of
the event. Continued model convergence does suggest that higher
probabilities may be needed in the coming days. At this time, there
is still enough potential for the timing and/or latitudinal position
of the trough to change that confidence in properly placing any
increased probabilities is limited. Further, a leading southern
stream shortwave trough may produce precipitation in parts of the
southern High Plains on Thursday. While amounts may remain minimal
to light for some areas, given some remaining dry air near the
surface, this also adds to the overall uncertainty.

..Wendt.. 02/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

This is an automatic message WUUS52 KGSP 150312

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1112 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Eastern Lincoln County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Southeastern Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Northwestern York County in Upstate South Carolina…
Northeastern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina…

* Until midnight EDT.

* At 1112 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Shelby to 19 miles west of Gastonia to 6 miles
east of Gaffney, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include…
Gastonia, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Mt Holly, Belmont, Cherryville,
Bessemer City, South Gastonia, Clover and Dallas.


Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.


A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina…and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT…LON 3535 8097 3530 8100 3527 8102 3517 8100
3515 8101 3514 8105 3510 8103 3509 8106
3495 8165 3515 8157 3530 8163 3555 8106
3555 8096 3550 8096 3549 8095 3545 8094
3543 8096 3539 8095 3537 8099 3536 8092
TIME…MOT…LOC 0312Z 248DEG 32KT 3526 8153 3518 8150 3504 8155

HAIL…<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HG