SPC Oct 22, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Oct 22, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening over parts of eastern Iowa and small parts of adjoining
Illinois and Wisconsin.

...Discussion...
At this time, no appreciable changes appear necessary to the ongoing
outlook, as prior reasoning continues to reflect the latest
expectations regarding evolution of storms over the Iowa vicinity.  


Meanwhile, latest HRRR runs are less bullish with respect to any
isolated severe risk over the Texas South Plains vicinity.  However,
will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk across this area for the
time being.

..Goss.. 10/22/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/

...MO/IA/IL/WI...
Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
central Rockies that will emerge into the Plains this afternoon and
tonight.  Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will begin surging
southward across the Plains into IA/KS/OK by evening.  This front
will be the focus of lift and scattered precipitation later today.

12z CAM solutions are in strong agreement that thunderstorms will
develop late this afternoon in vicinity of the cold front from
central IA into central WI.  A combination of a weak capping
inversion and strong ana-frontal low-level winds are expected to
relegate convective development to elevated storms behind the front.
 Stable near-surface conditions will limit the amount of convective
augmentation of larger-scale wind gusts, suggesting that the risk of
severe thunderstorm winds is marginal.  Sufficient elevated CAPE,
cool mid-level temperatures, and strong deep-layer shear may result
in hail in the more robust updrafts through this evening.

...West TX...
A small cluster of thunderstorms continues to be forecast for parts
of west TX this afternoon and evening in vicinity of a diffuse
surface dryline.  Forecast soundings suggest some risk of hail and
gusty winds in these storms through the early evening before
nocturnal cooling decreases the threat.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

This is an automatic message WUUS52 KGSP 150312
SVRGSP
NCC045-071-109-SCC021-091-150400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0024.190415T0312Z-190415T0400Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1112 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Eastern Lincoln County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Southeastern Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Northwestern York County in Upstate South Carolina…
Northeastern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina…

* Until midnight EDT.

* At 1112 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Shelby to 19 miles west of Gastonia to 6 miles
east of Gaffney, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include…
Gastonia, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Mt Holly, Belmont, Cherryville,
Bessemer City, South Gastonia, Clover and Dallas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina…and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT…LON 3535 8097 3530 8100 3527 8102 3517 8100
3515 8101 3514 8105 3510 8103 3509 8106
3495 8165 3515 8157 3530 8163 3555 8106
3555 8096 3550 8096 3549 8095 3545 8094
3543 8096 3539 8095 3537 8099 3536 8092
TIME…MOT…LOC 0312Z 248DEG 32KT 3526 8153 3518 8150 3504 8155

TORNADO…POSSIBLE
HAIL…<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HG

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

This is an automatic message WUUS52 KGSP 150215
SVRGSP
SCC045-059-083-150300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0022.190415T0215Z-190415T0300Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1015 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Northwestern Laurens County in Upstate South Carolina…
East central Greenville County in Upstate South Carolina…
Central Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina…

* Until 1100 PM EDT.

* At 1015 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles
southeast of Greenville Downtown, or 4 miles southeast of Five
Forks, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include…
Spartanburg, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn, Woodruff,
Pacolet, Cowpens, Roebuck, Pacolet Mills and Reidville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

LAT…LON 3463 8224 3482 8228 3503 8180 3499 8177
3493 8176 3493 8174 3491 8172 3483 8179
3461 8185
TIME…MOT…LOC 0215Z 250DEG 35KT 3476 8216

TORNADO…POSSIBLE
HAIL…<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HG