Flood Warning issued May 22 at 9:34PM EDT until May 24 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SC

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Santee River near Jamestown. * WHEN...Until late Friday morning. * IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, several dirt logging roads are impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 830 PM EDT Wednesday, the stage was 11.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday evening and continue falling to 7.3 feet Monday evening. - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

Flood Warning issued May 22 at 9:34PM EDT until May 24 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SC

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Savannah River near Clyo. * WHEN...Until Friday morning. * IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, the back yards of several homes on Tom Goethe Road flood. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 915 PM EDT Wednesday, the stage was 11.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Thursday evening and continue falling to 4.6 feet Monday evening. - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.

Flood Warning issued May 22 at 8:56PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington NC

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in South Carolina... Great Pee Dee River At Pee Dee affecting Florence and Marion Counties. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Great Pee Dee River at Pee Dee. * WHEN...Until late Friday morning. * IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Flood waters will affect swamplands and logging interests. Flood waters will affect timberland as far downstream as Yauhannah two weeks after the crest passes Pee Dee. Logging equipment needs to be moved. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:00 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 20.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late tomorrow evening and continue falling to 15.1 feet Monday evening. - Flood stage is 19.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
SPC MD 885

SPC MD 885

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
MD 0885 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Wisconsin...northwestern lower
Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220445Z - 220645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity appears likely to continue
weakening, but could still pose some risk for strong to severe gusts
through 3-4 AM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Although seasonably moist inflow with sizable CAPE is
probably being maintained into lingering thunderstorm activity
spreading into and through the upper Great Lakes region, convection
is likely becoming elevated above cool, stable air over Lake
Michigan.  At the same time, with continuing slow diurnal cooling, a
modestly moist boundary-layer over inland portions of lower Michigan
and eastern upper Michigan remains only weakly unstable at best.

While evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer may contribute to
the downward transport of 50+ kt flow to the surface, severe weather
potential appears likely to otherwise continue to diminish through
the next few hours.  As the supporting mid-level short wave trough
pivots northward toward the Lake Superior vicinity, it appears the
weakening leading line of convection could graze northwestern lower
Michigan coastal areas and overspread eastern upper Michigan, while
the weakening trailing line overspreads its outflow, near/east of
the Green Bay vicinity toward the eastern upper peninsula of
Michigan through 07-08Zz.

..Kerr.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON   46998523 45938435 44018648 43798722 42788800 43548841
            44618798 45968678 47068662 46998523 

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SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday.
Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern
Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday.
One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from
the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively
tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from
the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will
bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the
evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough
migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls
over the Northeast.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the
Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the
northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the
northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly
low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward
transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to
increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the
OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward
from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front
will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and
into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours.

...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity...

A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates
atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme
instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast
soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the
Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection
regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is
expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted
in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large
hail and damaging gusts.

Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop
along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border.
Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However,
given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to
overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter)
will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By
late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to
increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few
tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity.
Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from
southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet
increases and via storm outflow consolidation.

...Northern/Central Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the
east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will
remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western
MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep
midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible
initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward
evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong
frontal forcing.

...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic...

A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as
boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly
low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail
and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA
and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of
storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing
bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong
gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail.

...Northeast...

A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the
day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in
the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE
values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but
fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight
hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and
marginally severe hail in this environment.

..Leitman.. 05/22/2024

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SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will
be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower
Great Lakes.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and
unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and
Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface
temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the
front, convective initiation will become likely around midday.
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during
the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely.


Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by
afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the
moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective
potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country
northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly
early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and
cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings
near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches
in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where
cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The
greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A
few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow
echoes. 

The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid
evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east
Texas into northern Louisiana.
 
...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great
Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough
advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of
instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid
Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As
surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple
thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward
through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at
21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky
northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the
35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will
support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells
will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize
into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel
to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat,
although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the
lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the
strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening,
as cells move into the central Appalachians.

..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024

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