by k9oh | Oct 12, 2018 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
This is an automatic message WTNT33 KNHC 120855
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
…LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.9N 31.0W
ABOUT 480 MI…770 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 480 MI…770 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Madeira Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 31.0 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie
could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday or Sunday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.
RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 4 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could
lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
by k9oh | Oct 12, 2018 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
This is an automatic message WTNT34 KNHC 120847
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018
…MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…
…ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.0N 73.1W
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the
United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean
tonight through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today and
tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds
of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast,
including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today.
WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of
southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva
Peninsula.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from
New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over
Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard through this afternoon. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Elsewhere, flooding and
flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very
recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.
$$
Forecaster Beven
by k9oh | Oct 12, 2018 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
This is an automatic message WTNT35 KNHC 120846
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
…NADINE UNRAVELING…EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.2N 35.5W
ABOUT 740 MI…1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the partially exposed center of Tropical
Storm Nadine was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 35.5
West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nadine is
expected to dissipate by Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
by k9oh | Oct 12, 2018 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
This is an automatic message WTNT34 KNHC 120548
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018
…MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM…
…DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…37.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH…41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east-
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move away from the coast of the United
States during the next few hours and then begin to race
east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is
expected to continue to strengthen while becoming a post-tropical
low during the next few hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
primarily over water to the southeast of the center. The National
Ocean Service station on the York River recently reported sustained
winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) at an
elevation of 48 ft (15 m), while the Norfolk Naval Air Station
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of
75 mph (120 km/h). Also, a Weatherflow station on the Chesapeake
Light Tower recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h)
and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) at an elevation of 135 ft
(41 m).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck…2-4 ft
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.
Gale- to storm-force winds are occurring over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula, and these conditions will continue for the next
several hours.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland,
Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7
inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
by k9oh | Oct 12, 2018 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
This is an automatic message WTNT33 KNHC 120546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 63A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
200 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
…LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.4N 32.4W
ABOUT 550 MI…885 KM SW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 895 MI…1440 KM W OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 26 MPH…43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Madeira Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 32.4 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours,
and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.
RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce storm total accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could
lead to flash flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain.
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
