Flood Warning issued May 22 at 9:34PM EDT until May 24 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SC

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Savannah River near Clyo. * WHEN...Until Friday morning. * IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, the back yards of several homes on Tom Goethe Road flood. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 915 PM EDT Wednesday, the stage was 11.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Thursday evening and continue falling to 4.6 feet Monday evening. - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.

Flood Warning issued May 22 at 9:34PM EDT until May 24 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SC

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Santee River near Jamestown. * WHEN...Until late Friday morning. * IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, several dirt logging roads are impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 830 PM EDT Wednesday, the stage was 11.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday evening and continue falling to 7.3 feet Monday evening. - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

Flood Warning issued May 22 at 8:56PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington NC

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in South Carolina... Great Pee Dee River At Pee Dee affecting Florence and Marion Counties. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Great Pee Dee River at Pee Dee. * WHEN...Until late Friday morning. * IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Flood waters will affect swamplands and logging interests. Flood waters will affect timberland as far downstream as Yauhannah two weeks after the crest passes Pee Dee. Logging equipment needs to be moved. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:00 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 20.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late tomorrow evening and continue falling to 15.1 feet Monday evening. - Flood stage is 19.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
SPC MD 885

SPC MD 885

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
MD 0885 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Wisconsin...northwestern lower
Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220445Z - 220645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity appears likely to continue
weakening, but could still pose some risk for strong to severe gusts
through 3-4 AM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Although seasonably moist inflow with sizable CAPE is
probably being maintained into lingering thunderstorm activity
spreading into and through the upper Great Lakes region, convection
is likely becoming elevated above cool, stable air over Lake
Michigan.  At the same time, with continuing slow diurnal cooling, a
modestly moist boundary-layer over inland portions of lower Michigan
and eastern upper Michigan remains only weakly unstable at best.

While evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer may contribute to
the downward transport of 50+ kt flow to the surface, severe weather
potential appears likely to otherwise continue to diminish through
the next few hours.  As the supporting mid-level short wave trough
pivots northward toward the Lake Superior vicinity, it appears the
weakening leading line of convection could graze northwestern lower
Michigan coastal areas and overspread eastern upper Michigan, while
the weakening trailing line overspreads its outflow, near/east of
the Green Bay vicinity toward the eastern upper peninsula of
Michigan through 07-08Zz.

..Kerr.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON   46998523 45938435 44018648 43798722 42788800 43548841
            44618798 45968678 47068662 46998523 

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SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday.
Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern
Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday.
One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from
the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively
tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from
the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will
bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the
evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough
migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls
over the Northeast.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the
Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the
northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the
northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly
low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward
transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to
increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the
OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward
from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front
will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and
into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours.

...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity...

A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates
atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme
instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast
soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the
Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection
regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is
expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted
in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large
hail and damaging gusts.

Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop
along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border.
Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However,
given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to
overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter)
will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By
late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to
increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few
tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity.
Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from
southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet
increases and via storm outflow consolidation.

...Northern/Central Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the
east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will
remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western
MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep
midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible
initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward
evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong
frontal forcing.

...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic...

A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as
boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly
low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail
and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA
and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of
storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing
bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong
gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail.

...Northeast...

A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the
day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in
the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE
values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but
fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight
hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and
marginally severe hail in this environment.

..Leitman.. 05/22/2024

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SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will
be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower
Great Lakes.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and
unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and
Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface
temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the
front, convective initiation will become likely around midday.
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during
the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely.


Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by
afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the
moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective
potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country
northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly
early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and
cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings
near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches
in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where
cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The
greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A
few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow
echoes. 

The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid
evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east
Texas into northern Louisiana.
 
...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great
Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough
advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of
instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid
Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As
surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple
thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward
through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at
21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky
northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the
35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will
support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells
will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize
into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel
to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat,
although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the
lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the
strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening,
as cells move into the central Appalachians.

..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024

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SPC Tornado Watch 283 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 283 Status Reports

WW 0283 Status Updates
WW 0283 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 283

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LIT TO
40 ENE LIT.

..GOSS..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...LZK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 283 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC001-085-095-117-220740-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS             LONOKE              MONROE              
PRAIRIE              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 283 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 283

WW 283 TORNADO AR 220120Z - 220800Z
WW 0283 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  North cental and central Arkansas

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 820 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through the early
morning hours, in an environment favorable for large hail of 1-2
inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 40
miles south southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW
279...WW 280...WW 281...WW 282...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.

...Thompson

Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 282 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 282 Status Reports

WW 0282 Status Updates
WW 0282 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 282

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MMO
TO 25 ESE JVL.

WW 282 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22/05Z.

..KERR..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 282 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC037-089-093-099-111-220500-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DE KALB              KANE                KENDALL             
LA SALLE             MCHENRY             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 281 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 281 Status Reports

WW 0281 Status Updates
WW 0281 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 281

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW OSH
TO 15 WSW GRB TO 45 NE GRB.

..KERR..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MPX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 281 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

WIC009-015-029-047-061-071-087-139-220440-

WI 
.    WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWN                CALUMET             DOOR                
GREEN LAKE           KEWAUNEE            MANITOWOC           
OUTAGAMIE            WINNEBAGO           


LMZ521-522-541-542-543-220440-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI 

GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI 

ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 

STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 

Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 279 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 279 Status Reports

WW 0279 Status Updates
WW 0279 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 279

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W JVL TO
25 SSW OSH.

..KERR..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

WIC027-039-047-055-059-079-089-101-105-117-127-131-133-220440-

WI 
.    WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DODGE                FOND DU LAC         GREEN LAKE          
JEFFERSON            KENOSHA             MILWAUKEE           
OZAUKEE              RACINE              ROCK                
SHEBOYGAN            WALWORTH            WASHINGTON          
WAUKESHA             


LMZ643-644-645-646-220440-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LMZ643 

LMZ644 

LMZ645 

LMZ646 
Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 278 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 278 Status Reports

WW 0278 Status Updates
WW 0278 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 278

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FYV TO
25 SW HRO.

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 278 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22/03Z.

..KERR..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC033-087-220300-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAWFORD             MADISON             


MOC029-220300-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMDEN               


OKC101-135-220300-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MUSKOGEE             SEQUOYAH            

Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 280 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 280 Status Reports

WW 0280 Status Updates
WW 0280 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 280

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FAM
TO 15 SW TBN TO 30 WNW TBN TO 45 NNE VIH TO 20 WNW STL TO 20 N
STL.

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED AROUND 03Z, IF 
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE.

..KERR..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 280 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC095-220340-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KNOX                 


MOC055-071-073-099-125-161-169-183-189-215-219-221-510-220340-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAWFORD             FRANKLIN            GASCONADE           
JEFFERSON            MARIES              PHELPS              
PULASKI              ST. CHARLES         ST. LOUIS           
TEXAS                WARREN              WASHINGTON          




Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 277 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 277 Status Reports

WW 0277 Status Updates
WW 0277 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 277

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE IRK
TO 25 W DBQ TO 20 N DBQ TO 15 SW VOK.

..BENTLEY..05/22/24

ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-220240-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARROLL              HENDERSON           HENRY               
JO DAVIESS           MERCER              ROCK ISLAND         
WARREN               WHITESIDE           


IAC031-045-057-061-087-097-103-105-111-115-139-163-183-220240-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CEDAR                CLINTON             DES MOINES          
DUBUQUE              HENRY               JACKSON             
JOHNSON              JONES               LEE                 
LOUISA               MUSCATINE           SCOTT               
WASHINGTON           


WIC103-220240-

WI 
Read more
SPC May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC May 22, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening
across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern
Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes
and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue
south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a
threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two.

...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms
located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa,
western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are
located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the
mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE
along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated
70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This
feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60
knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this
evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained
for several more hours.

The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with
0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near
300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment
further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing.
This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and
isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential
for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will
be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin
into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will
be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to
80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments.
Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should
become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.

...Ozarks/Southern Plains...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the
Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is
analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is
estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma
southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the
airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s
F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear
analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at
Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range.
This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with
supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is
expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated
toward midnight.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2024

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