SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level flow regime will continue across the CONUS
as the western US ridge is compressed and pushed east by a shortwave
trough moving onshore across California. Troughing across the
eastern US will intensify, bringing cooler than average conditions
to much of the East. At the surface, low pressure and a cold front
will move onshore and across the Great Basin while high pressure
strengthens in the Midwest.

...Great Basin...
Ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to move onshore early in the
day, gusty southerly winds are expected across portions of the Great
Basin. Increasing flow aloft should bolster surface winds to 15-20
mph through the afternoon. Warm surface temperatures in the 70s to
80s F should allow for minimum surface humidity in the 10-20% range.
Weak mid-level moisture advection ahead of the trough and associated
cold front may also support a few high-based thunderstorms later in
the day. Locally elevated fire weather conditions and isolated
lighting appear possible, but above average fuel moisture gives
little confidence on the severity and spatial coverage at this time.

..Lyons.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid-level flow pattern is forecast across the CONUS
through the Day1 forecast period. A broad cyclonic trough is
forecast to be centered over the Ohio Valley while a ridge of high
pressure builds across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a
cold front will slowly make its way off the eastern coast of the US
while a large are of high pressure is expected to remain stationary
across the central Rockies/Plains. With mid-level synoptic flow
displaced from much of the warmer and drier conditions across the
CONUS, little overlap of fire weather conditions is expected.
Localized gusty downslope winds across northern New Mexico may
support locally elevated fire weather potential this afternoon and
evening. However, above average fuel moisture from recent
precipitation should limit the threat.

..Lyons.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of northern Florida and
Atlantic coastal portions of the Florida peninsula Thursday, a few
of which may pose at least some risk for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the stronger westerlies across the northern
mid-latitude Pacific will trend more zonal Thursday through Thursday
night.  However, it appears that mid-level troughing progressing
into the Pacific coast, and downstream ridging progressing across
the Rockies, will remain amplified on the leading edge of this
regime, impinging on large-scale downstream troughing entrenched
across eastern North America.  A broad mid-level low embedded within
this troughing is forecast to remain centered near James Bay, to the
west-southwest of a blocking high near the Labrador Sea.

Models continue to indicate that a series of smaller-scale short
wave perturbations, digging to the lee of the Rockies mid-level
ridging, will contribute to amplification of the large-scale
troughing, east of the lower Mississippi Valley through the south
Atlantic Seaboard.  It still appears that this will be accompanied
by substantive lower/mid tropospheric drying as far south and east
as the northern Gulf of Mexico and the waters east of the south
Atlantic coast by late Thursday night.  A surface cold front is
expected to advance south of northern Florida through central
portions of the Florida peninsula, displacing seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content southward.

...Florida...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow on the order of 30-40+ kt appears
likely to edge southward with the surface front, and perhaps a
pre-frontal outflow boundary, across northern Florida during the day
Thursday.  This will contribute to at least modest shear, as the
moist pre-frontal boundary layer destabilizes with insolation. 
Aided by increasingly cyclonic and difluent mid/high level flow, it
still appears that the environment may become at least marginally
conducive to organized thunderstorm development with the potential
to produce marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

Across central and southern portions of the peninsula, wind fields
are forecast to be generally weaker, but with more pronounced
veering with height in lower to mid-levels, along the sea breeze
developing near or inland of the Atlantic coast.  With this surface
boundary providing the focus for stronger low-level convergence,
forecast thermodynamic profiles exhibiting relatively steep
low-level lapse rates, sizable CAPE, and relatively dry mid-levels,
but with weak mid-level inhibition, may prove conducive to
thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe winds
and hail.

..Kerr.. 05/05/2021

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SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts
of the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Wind
gusts and marginally severe hail will be the primary hazards.

...Gulf Coast to Middle Atlantic...

Broad upper troughing will continue east of the Rockies through the
day1 period. One low-latitude short-wave trough is currently
translating east across the TN Valley and will eject east of the
Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast by 18z. This feature should
encourage low-level flow to veer ahead of the surface front which
will allow for substantial boundary-layer heating across VA into NC,
but low-level convergence is not expected to be that significant.
Even so, convective temperatures should be breached by 18-19z and
isolated convection appears possible within deep westerly flow
regime. Gusty winds, and perhaps some marginally severe hail are the
primary risks.

Farther south along the trailing front, thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing at the start of the period along the central Gulf Coast
where high-PW values and poor lapse rates will be noted. Latest
model guidance suggests a secondary bout of frontal convection will
mature along the wind shift early in the period from southeast LA
toward the FL Panhandle. This seems possible given the very moist
air mass, and there is some risk for gusty winds and marginally
severe hail given the adequate (~30kt) surface-6km bulk shear. This
activity should propagate east-southeast as the primary surface
front settles into northern FL.

...Central High Plains...

Steep low-level lapse rates are expected to develop across the
central High Plains as surface temperatures warm into the lower 70s
across western KS. Forecast soundings suggest isolated thunderstorms
should develop by 18-19z across eastern CO then spread southeast
into a region characterized by several hundred J/kg SBCAPE. This
activity could easily produce gusty winds given the steep lapse-rate
environment within strongly sheared northwest-flow regime. However,
at this time it's not clear severe probabilities are warranted given
the marginal moisture.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 05/05/2021

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South this
afternoon...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Mississippi
  Central and southern Alabama
  Northern and eastern Louisiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous to widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
  expected through this evening across the Deep South.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Grams.. 05/04/2021

$$

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SPC May 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC May 4, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND INTO ADJACENT
PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
today across the Deep South.  The primary risk will be scattered
severe gusts resulting in wind damage and an accompanying risk for a
few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough initially near the OK/AR border this
morning, will move east and reach the central/southern Appalachians
by early Wednesday morning.  An effective cold front modulated by
convection at the start of the period, is forecast to move east
across the lower MS Valley and OH Valley/Mid-South during the day. 
A weak surface low is forecast to migrate northeastward from AR to
the lower Great Lakes.  

...Southeast and northern Gulf Coast...
A couple of thunderstorm clusters/MCSs are forecast this morning
across the OH Valley south-southwestward into the lower MS Valley
and east TX near the aforementioned surface boundary.  The risk for
damaging gusts will probably accompany one or more of these
thunderstorm clusters given moderate instability and a moisture-rich
airmass.  Model guidance varies considerably regarding the evolution
of a probable thunderstorm cluster located over KY/TN during the
morning.  A portion of this convective band may continue into
northern AL/GA and be aided by the nose of a 35-kt LLJ situated over
MS at daybreak.  It is less clear if storms rejuvenate farther east
near the Cumberland Gap and parts of VA/NC during the day or if the
focus for thunderstorms is shunted farther south over GA/Carolinas. 
Given a very moist and very unstable airmass sampled Monday night
along the northern Gulf Coast (reference the 00 UTC Slidell, LA raob
featuring an 18 g/kg mean mixing ratio and 3500 J/kg MLCAPE), it is
plausible a couple of organized thunderstorm bands will develop
coincident with the diurnal heating cycle.  The m-shaped hodographs
due in part to the positive-tilt character of the mid-level trough,
in combination with high PW, will favor upscale growth with
developing storms.  It appears a swath of damaging gusts is most
probable from parts of MS east through parts of AL.  A gradual
diminishing in thunderstorm intensity is expected by the mid evening
hours.  

...OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during
the day on the northern periphery of a moist/unstable sector. 
Relatively large uncertainty exists with convection potentially
limiting the degree of destabilization, especially across parts of
the OH Valley during the day.  Nonetheless, it seems an isolated
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps hail may accompany the stronger
storms before this activity weakens during the evening.

..Smith/Lyons.. 05/04/2021

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 134 Status Reports

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 134 Status Reports

WW 0134 Status Updates
WW 0134 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 134

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW FTW
TO 15 NNE MWL TO 45 N MWL TO 50 NNW FTW.

WW 134 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040500Z.

..GLEASON..05/04/21

ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 134 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC237-040500-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JACK                 


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 Status Reports

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 Status Reports

WW 0136 Status Updates
WW 0136 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 136

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SLO
TO 35 SE MTO TO 45 SSE MTO TO 10 WNW SLO.

..GLEASON..05/04/21

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC079-040440-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JASPER               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135 Status Reports

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 135 Status Reports

WW 0135 Status Updates
WW 0135 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 135

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AUS
TO 60 E JCT TO 55 SSE BWD.

WW 135 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040400Z.

..GLEASON..05/04/21

ATTN...WFO...EWX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC053-299-040400-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BURNET               LLANO               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Tornado Watch 133 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 133 Status Reports

WW 0133 Status Updates
WW 0133 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 133

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DEQ TO
25 NW RKR TO 15 N FSM.

WW 133 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040400Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513

..GLEASON..05/04/21

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC079-135-040400-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LE FLORE             SEQUOYAH            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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