SPC Feb 26, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 26, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are currently not forecast for Saturday.

...Synopsis...

Strong southwesterly deep layer flow will persist from the southern
Plains through the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday as a
shortwave upper trough digs across the western U.S. A second
shortwave trough will eject from the central Rockies toward the
upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward
through period, extending from the TN Valley west/southwest toward
the Red River in OK/TX by 00z. A weak surface low will exist across
eastern portions of the TX Panhandle or southwest OK, with a dryline
extending southward across west-central TX. Isentropic ascent and
elevated instability will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms across portions of OK/TX into the Ohio Valley/central
Appalachians vicinity through the period.

...North TX Vicinity...

At this time, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding severe
potential near the surface warm front near/north of the I-20
vicinity. While the warm front is forecast to lift northward toward
the Red River by early evening, forecast soundings continue to
indicate limited potential for surface-based convection. Stronger
forcing will remain north of the region, and a warm layer between
the surface and 850 mb will result in quite a bit of inhibition.
Most guidance develops precipitation north of the warm front with
little signal for warm sector development. There is some low-end
potential for marginal hail in elevated convection given strong
shear and steep midlevel lapse rates above the low level inversion.
However, any greater severe potential appears too
conditional/uncertain to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/26/2021

Read more
SPC Feb 26, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 26, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex across
central Mississippi and into far west-central Arkansas Friday
morning, accompanied by some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak off the Pacific Northwest coast will
move southeastward and amplify the western CONUS trough throughout
the day. Meanwhile, a shortwave, seen on water vapor imagery in the
Texas Panhandle early this morning will move eastward across
Oklahoma and Arkansas during the morning before weakening and
shifting into the Tennessee Valley by mid to late afternoon. A
second, weaker, mid-level vorticity maximum is expected to cross the
southern Plains and overspread Arkansas by 06Z Saturday. 

At the surface, a stationary front is expected to extend from
southern Texas across central Louisiana and central Mississippi and
Alabama and off the coast near the Georgia/South Carolina border at
12Z Friday. Numerous storms are expected to be ongoing north of this
stationary front in an area of broad isentropic ascent ahead of the
aforementioned approaching mid-level shortwave trough. 

...Arklatex into central Mississippi and far western Alabama...
Storms will be ongoing from northeast Texas across northern
Louisiana and into central Mississippi Friday morning. 00Z KFWD and
KSHV RAOBs show weak instability (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE) and
moderately steep lapse mid-level rates (~7 to 7.5 C/km) across the
region. However, synoptic forcing from isentropic ascent and the
approaching mid-level shortwave have proven sufficient for a few
stronger updrafts to develop Thursday evening with occasional
reports of large hail. A similar environment is expected to persist
after 12Z Friday which will maintain a severe weather threat from
northeast Texas across northern Louisiana and into central
Mississippi. This threat should only last through 16-17Z as the
forcing for ascent shifts northeastward and mid-level heights start
to rise across the region. Large hail will be the primary threat
with these elevated storms. However, the surface inversion is
weak/shallow enough that a downdraft or two could penetrate the
inversion and lead to isolated damaging winds. 

Subsidence is expected in the wake of the morning shortwave and the
surface stationary front will start to mix northward as a warm front
through the day. This surface front should stall somewhere from
northern Louisiana into northern Mississippi this afternoon/evening.
An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out on the cool side of
this boundary as weak ascent associated with an approaching
mid-level shortwave overspreads the frontal zone. However, veered
low-mid level flow will limit isentropic forcing and elevated
instability will remain quite weak. Therefore, while a storm or two
cannot be ruled out, weak forcing/thermodynamics will likely
preclude much of a severe weather threat.

..Bentley/Broyles.. 02/26/2021

Read more
SPC MD 130

SPC MD 130

MD 0130 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MD 0130 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Arkansas...Northern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260525Z - 260730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail threat continues with convection.
Severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted at this time.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching the
southern High Plains late this evening. This feature should eject
into eastern OK/Northeast TX by sunrise. Latest radar trends suggest
the leading edge of this short wave is becoming increasingly
influential in convection/intensity along a corridor from west of
SEP-DFW-PRX-TXK-north of ELD. Latest forecast soundings suggest this
elevated convection is likely rooted between 750-800mb, with
cloud-layer lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. While MUCAPE is not
particularly noteworthy, steep lapse rates within the cool mid
levels will likely contribute to some threat for hail, especially
where more discrete structures are maintained. Latest thinking is a
considerable amount of convection will likely continue along the
aforementioned corridor for the next several hours with a slow
east-southeast movement to this evolving complex. While shear
remains strong, severe hail should remain marginal in size and
likely rather isolated in coverage. For these reasons, a watch does
not appear warranted.

..Darrow/Grams.. 02/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32509865 33139735 33509594 33679446 33659335 33479240
            33019258 33079408 32899572 32539689 31999810 32509865 

Read more
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

This is an automatic message WUUS52 KGSP 150312
SVRGSP
NCC045-071-109-SCC021-091-150400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0024.190415T0312Z-190415T0400Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1112 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Eastern Lincoln County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Southeastern Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina…
Northwestern York County in Upstate South Carolina…
Northeastern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina…

* Until midnight EDT.

* At 1112 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Shelby to 19 miles west of Gastonia to 6 miles
east of Gaffney, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include…
Gastonia, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Mt Holly, Belmont, Cherryville,
Bessemer City, South Gastonia, Clover and Dallas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina…and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT…LON 3535 8097 3530 8100 3527 8102 3517 8100
3515 8101 3514 8105 3510 8103 3509 8106
3495 8165 3515 8157 3530 8163 3555 8106
3555 8096 3550 8096 3549 8095 3545 8094
3543 8096 3539 8095 3537 8099 3536 8092
TIME…MOT…LOC 0312Z 248DEG 32KT 3526 8153 3518 8150 3504 8155

TORNADO…POSSIBLE
HAIL…<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HG

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

This is an automatic message WUUS52 KGSP 150215
SVRGSP
SCC045-059-083-150300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0022.190415T0215Z-190415T0300Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1015 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Northwestern Laurens County in Upstate South Carolina…
East central Greenville County in Upstate South Carolina…
Central Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina…

* Until 1100 PM EDT.

* At 1015 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles
southeast of Greenville Downtown, or 4 miles southeast of Five
Forks, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include…
Spartanburg, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn, Woodruff,
Pacolet, Cowpens, Roebuck, Pacolet Mills and Reidville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

LAT…LON 3463 8224 3482 8228 3503 8180 3499 8177
3493 8176 3493 8174 3491 8172 3483 8179
3461 8185
TIME…MOT…LOC 0215Z 250DEG 35KT 3476 8216

TORNADO…POSSIBLE
HAIL…<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HG