SPC Mar 29, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Mar 29, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A seemingly quiescent period for organized severe thunderstorms will
begin on Wednesday (day 4) and perhaps extend through Saturday (day
7) according to medium-range guidance.  A progressive upper-air
pattern will characterize the extended outlook until some signals in
models imply an amplification of a western U.S. trough next weekend.
Although low-level moisture from the Gulf will likely infiltrate the
southern Great Plains later this work week, the overall combination
of predictability and potential appear low for an organized severe
risk.

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SPC Tornado Watch 75

SPC Tornado Watch 75

WW 75 TORNADO AL LA MS TN 290300Z - 290900Z
WW 0075 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 75
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Alabama
  Far northeast Louisiana
  West-central to northeast Mississippi
  Far southern middle Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1000 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will likely progress east-northeast
from the Ark-La-Miss region into the Tennessee Valley overnight,
offering a risk for a couple tornadoes and scattered damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Huntsville AL to 130
miles southwest of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 71...WW 72...WW 73...WW
74...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Grams

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SPC Tornado Watch 75

SPC Tornado Watch 75 Status Reports

WW 0075 Status Updates
WW 0075 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 75

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW TCL
TO 50 S BNA.

..MOSIER..03/29/20

ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN...MEG...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 75 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC009-043-049-057-063-071-073-079-083-089-095-103-107-119-125-
127-133-290940-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT               CULLMAN             DEKALB              
FAYETTE              GREENE              JACKSON             
JEFFERSON            LAWRENCE            LIMESTONE           
MADISON              MARSHALL            MORGAN              
PICKENS              SUMTER              TUSCALOOSA          
WALKER               WINSTON             


TNC051-103-127-290940-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FRANKLIN             LINCOLN             MOORE               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
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SPC Tornado Watch 74 Status Reports

SPC Tornado Watch 74 Status Reports

WW 0074 Status Updates
WW 0074 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 74

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HSV
TO 50 S BNA TO 50 NW CHA TO 45 N CSV.

..MOSIER..03/29/20

ATTN...WFO...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TNC003-015-031-035-041-049-061-133-137-141-175-177-185-290940-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              CANNON              COFFEE              
CUMBERLAND           DE KALB             FENTRESS            
GRUNDY               OVERTON             PICKETT             
PUTNAM               VAN BUREN           WARREN              
WHITE                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Mar 29, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Mar 29, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTH
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday over
the northeast Gulf Coast states and southern Georgia.  Damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado are the primary severe threats.

...Southeast...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the lower MS
Valley across the Southeast and into the western Atlantic during the
Day 3 period.  An eastward-moving surface low will translate along a
northward-advancing maritime front.  A cold front attendant to the
low will push east across the Gulf Coast during the day.  

A cluster of showers/thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will
likely be ongoing during the morning over parts of MS and AL.  The
northward penetration of a moist/maritime airmass into the coastal
plain will gradually destabilize downstream of the ongoing
convection.  Model forecast soundings show weak mid-level lapse
rates, but moist low levels and some heating will probably result in
250-750 J/kg MLCAPE.  Strong westerly flow, increasing with height
above the boundary layer, will result in long hodographs and the
potential for organized storm structures.  The main threats with the
stronger storms will be damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
This activity will push east off the coast into the western Atlantic
during the evening.

..Smith.. 03/29/2020

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND WEST
TX...

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains on Monday. A weak surface low initially
over eastern NM is forecast to intensify somewhat and move
southeastward into north TX by Monday night. Dry conditions and
increasing winds in the wake of the upper trough will result in a
critical fire-weather threat across portions of the southern High
Plains into west TX. 

...New Mexico into West TX...
West-northwesterly low-level flow will increase in the immediate
wake of the upper trough from much of NM into west TX. Sustained
winds will increase to 20-30 mph from eastern NM into adjacent
portions of west TX, as RH values drop into the 8-15% range. These
conditions will result in a critical fire-weather threat. Localized
extremely critical conditions appear possible across portions of the
Trans-Pecos into the Davis Mountains vicinity. 

The eastward extent of elevated/critical conditions will be
determined by the progress of the dryline/Pacific cold front, and
some adjustment to this portion of the outlook remains possible as
the event approaches.

..Dean.. 03/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper trough is forecast to move from the Southwest
into the southern Rockies by tonight. A weak surface low may begin
to develop across portions of NM in response to this feature.
Another day of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected over
portions of NM and adjacent west TX, though the critical threat
appears limited. 

...New Mexico into West TX...
Relatively dry and breezy conditions will develop across much of NM
into adjacent portions of far west TX this afternoon. Sustained
winds of 15-20 mph combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will
result in elevated fire-weather conditions. Initially dry
southeasterly return flow will develop across portions of the
eastern Trans-Pecos and lower Pecos River Valley, where elevated
fire-weather conditions are also expected.

..Dean.. 03/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Mar 29, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Mar 29, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level disturbance will move from AZ/NM eastward during the
period and reach the OK/AR border by early Tuesday morning.  A
frontal zone initially in the northern Gulf of Mexico will advance
northward through parts of TX during the day as a surface low
develops over west-central TX by early evening.  An inverted surface
trough will extend northwest through the TX Panhandle into the
central High Plains during the day.  After dark, a cold front will
sweep east across much of TX as the surface low develops eastward
into MS at daybreak Tuesday.  

...Southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and increasing moisture from
the northwest Gulf will spread north through TX during the day. 
Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization across
east TX within a moist/marginally unstable warm advection zone. 
Farther west over the TX Panhandle, isolated storms are forecast by
late afternoon within a northwest-southeast corridor.  Steepening
tropospheric lapse rates will support a few strong to severe
thunderstorms potentially capable of a hail/wind risk.  This
diurnally driven activity will likely weaken by sunset.  Farther
south over northwest and into central TX, uncertainty remains
whether a few storms can manage to form during the late afternoon. 
Wind profiles would support updraft rotation but a paucity of storm
coverage implied by model convective schemes, casts doubt whether
more than a storm or two will develop.  

During the evening into the overnight, increasing mid-level height
falls will overspread east TX into the lower MS Valley.  Storm
coverage will likely increase concurrent with a strengthening warm
conveyor and mid-level DCVA.  Forecast soundings show a relatively
deep/moist boundary layer with strong deep shear.  The more vigorous
storms may organize into a few small clusters/bands with an
accompanying damaging wind hazard being the primary concern near and
south of the warm front.  This activity will likely spread east
across the MS River late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

..Smith.. 03/29/2020

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