SPC Tornado Watch 701

SPC Tornado Watch 701

WW 701 TORNADO MS TN 162020Z - 170300Z
WW 0701 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern and northern Mississippi
  Southwest Tennessee

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Line of thunderstorms along a cold front will spread
east-northeast with a risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes.
Semi-discrete supercells over southwest Mississippi may persist east
and pose a continued tornado risk across eastern portions of central
and southern Mississippi.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 80 miles north of Tupelo MS to 30 miles
southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 700...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Grams

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SPC Tornado Watch 701

SPC Tornado Watch 701 Status Reports

WW 0701 Status Updates
WW 0701 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 701

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GWO TO
35 E TUP TO 45 N MSL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214

..SMITH..12/16/19

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 701 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MSC017-019-023-025-031-035-057-061-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-
087-091-095-099-101-103-105-123-129-155-159-162340-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHICKASAW            CHOCTAW             CLARKE              
CLAY                 COVINGTON           FORREST             
ITAWAMBA             JASPER              JEFFERSON DAVIS     
JONES                KEMPER              LAMAR               
LAUDERDALE           LEAKE               LEE                 
LOWNDES              MARION              MONROE              
NESHOBA              NEWTON              NOXUBEE             
OKTIBBEHA            SCOTT               SMITH               
WEBSTER              WINSTON             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Tornado Watch 702

SPC Tornado Watch 702

WW 702 TORNADO AL MS TN 162145Z - 170500Z
WW 0702 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and northern Alabama
  Far southeast Mississippi
  Far southern middle Tennessee

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms should
progress east from northeast and central Mississippi across
west-central and northern portions of Alabama into far southern
Tennessee this evening, offering a risk for damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes. An additional cluster of strong to severe storms
over southwest Mississippi may eventually spread east towards
southwest Alabama.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 85 miles south southeast of Meridian MS
to 50 miles north northeast of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 700...WW 701...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Grams

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SPC Tornado Watch 702

SPC Tornado Watch 702 Status Reports

WW 0702 Status Updates
WW 0702 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 702

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SMITH..12/16/19

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 702 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC007-009-021-023-025-033-043-049-055-057-059-063-065-071-073-
075-077-079-083-089-091-093-095-103-105-107-115-117-119-125-127-
129-133-162340-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BLOUNT              CHILTON             
CHOCTAW              CLARKE              COLBERT             
CULLMAN              DEKALB              ETOWAH              
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GREENE              
HALE                 JACKSON             JEFFERSON           
LAMAR                LAUDERDALE          LAWRENCE            
LIMESTONE            MADISON             MARENGO             
MARION               MARSHALL            MORGAN              
PERRY                PICKENS             ST. CLAIR           
SHELBY               SUMTER              TUSCALOOSA          
WALKER               WASHINGTON          WINSTON             


MSC041-111-153-162340-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GREENE               PERRY               WAYNE               
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Latest high-resolution guidance indicates an elevated to critically
strong surface pressure gradient fostering gusty offshore flow
across southern California.  10-20% RH values and areas of gusty
winds will become common from the afternoon onward.  The region is
still recovering from recent rainfall, however, and fuels are not
dry enough to support a widespread fire-weather threat.  Additional
details are in the previous discussion below.

..Cook.. 12/15/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/

...Synopsis...
Cold and/or wet conditions will preclude the risk for large fires
across the CONUS on Monday. In south Texas, 15 to 20 mph winds and
relative humidity in the 20 to 35 percent range will be present
behind the cold front, but these marginal conditions and moist fuels
will limit the overall large-fire threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Quiescent fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. 
See the previous forecast below for more details.

..Cook.. 12/14/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

...Synopsis...
Cool and moist conditions across most of the CONUS will limit the
overall fire weather threat. Moderate mid-level flow will be present
across much of the southern half of the CONUS today. Some of this
stronger mid-level flow will mix toward the surface across Arizona
and New Mexico with winds increasing to the 20 to 30 mph range.
Minimum relative humidity across this region will reach 25 to 35
percent which is above elevated criteria. Therefore, considering the
moist fuel and atmospheric conditions, the overall fire weather
threat will be small.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Dec 14, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Dec 14, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A STRIP OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe-thunderstorm risk for strong to severe storms
exists for a few more hours over a strip of the central Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, two primary synoptic- to subsynoptic-scale
troughs will affect the CONUS through the period.  Between them,
flow will back from west-northwesterly to westerly and
west-southwesterly, as they evolve in the following ways:
1.  The leading trough -- currently with shortwave vorticity
components over MO/AR and the southern Appalachians -- is forecast
to pivot northeastward to southern QC, across New England, and
offshore from the Mid-Atlantic region.  This will occur as the two
components gradually phase/merge.
2.  The trailing perturbation -- now offshore from the Pacific
Northwest -- will amplify through the period as it digs
southeastward across northern CA and OR to NV and southern CA.  By
12Z, associated cyclonic flow should cover the southwestern CONUS
from the southern Rockies to the Pacific Coast, as well as parts of
northern Baja and Sonora.

At the surface, a strengthening cyclone -- analyzed at 11Z over the
Delaware Bay region -- should move northeastward from NJ through the
morning.  The cyclone is forecast to continue expanding/deepening as
it moves to southern QC this evening.  The associated cold front was
drawn southwestward across northern FL and the northeastern Gulf. 
This front should move across the remainder of the FL Peninsula and
Keys before 06Z. 

...Central FL...
A loosely organized band of convection, with widely scattered
embedded thunderstorms, will continue to move eastward across the
central FL Peninsula for a few more hours, offering isolated
wind-damage potential.  While a tornado still cannot be ruled out,
the threat appears to be diminishing gradually as prefrontal surface
winds veer, increasingly removed from the deepening surface low over
NJ.  The air mass across the region will be characterized by surface
dew points upper 60s to low 70s F, with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
derived from modified 12Z RAOBs and model soundings.  Deep shear
will weaken with southward extent and time in the warm sector, but
still remains favorable in the near term, with effective-shear
magnitudes 40-50 kt.  However, messy/quasi-linear convective mode,
and the prospect of weakening large-scale and convective lift over
time, indicate the severe threat has become marginal in both
coverage and magnitude.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/14/2019

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SPC Dec 13, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Dec 13, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL AR AND FAR
NORTHWEST LA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday night
toward Monday morning across far southeast Oklahoma, northeast
Texas, southwest to central Arkansas and far northwest Louisiana.

...Arklatex Vicinity late Sunday/early Monday...
A shortwave trough will deepen and shift east from the Great Basin
to the central/southern Plains on Sunday. As the system intensifies,
a belt of 100+ kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will overspread portions
of the southern High Plains into OK and the Ozark Plateau by early
Monday morning. Most convection will be suppressed through much of
Sunday as southerly low level flow works to return Gulf moisture
northward across eastern TX, AR and the lower MS Valley.
Additionally, a warm layer near 700 mb will keep the environment
capped until at least 06z, and possibly longer. Most guidance has
come into agreement that a surface low will be located in the
vicinity of central or northern AR by 12z Monday, with a trailing
cold front extending southwest of the center into northeast and
central TX. Low-to-mid 60s F dewpoints are expected ahead of the
front across the Sabine Valley into southern/central AR and
southern/western MS late in the period, with steepening midlevel
lapse rates developing as midlevel cooling occurs with the eastward
ejection of the trough.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding capping, there is
enough consistency across various guidance to introduce a Marginal
risk area for portions of northeast TX, far southeast OK, southwest
into central AR and far northwest LA, mainly for the last 3-6 hours
of the period. Forecast soundings from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show
shear capable of supporting rotating updrafts/supercells, while at
least some pockets of around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will exist. As such, a
couple of cells could pose a risk for marginal hail, strong gusts,
and possibly a tornado early Monday morning.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2019

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SPC MD 2191

SPC MD 2191

MD 2191 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF WISCONSIN
MD 2191 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2019

Areas affected...northeast Iowa/southeast Minnesota into much of
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 091718Z - 092115Z

SUMMARY...A quick onset of moderate to heavy snow is expected to
persist for a few hours as it moves out of Iowa and Minnesota and
into Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...A band of snow coincident with a cold front and
supported by deep frontogenetical lift is quickly progressing east
across the upper Mississippi Valley, producing brief periods of
heavy snow along with gusty winds. The heaviest part of the band
currently stretches from far southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa
into west-central Wisconsin, and will likely maintain intensity for
a few hours. With time, the band is likely to dissipate from south
to north as the greatest ascent lifts north.

..Jewell.. 12/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42619216 43389186 44109143 44889099 45599058 46178970
            46128914 45768817 44628798 44168822 43099012 42679086
            42399128 42289210 42619216 

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SPC Dec 9, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Dec 9, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2019

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday across the contiguous
United States.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the central
and eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Within this regime, a southern-stream
shortwave trough is forecast to advance eastward from the southern
Plains/northern Mexico to the lower MS Valley. At the surface, a
cold front will advance steadily east-southeastward across the
Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and deep south TX.

Thunderstorm potential Tuesday will mainly be relegated to locations
behind the cold front, extending from parts of coastal/east TX
across the Southeast. Some chance for surface-based storms may exist
Tuesday afternoon along the front over portions of southeastern AL,
southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle. Regardless, poor mid-level
lapse rates, modest low-level shear, and weak instability across
these areas should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Gleason.. 12/09/2019

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2019

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 12/09/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2019/

...Synopsis...
As a large-scale mid-level trough deepens and progresses eastward
along with a deepening surface low across the eastern CONUS, a cold
front will sweep across much of the southern and eastern U.S.
Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will move across the
southwest CONUS throughout the period, promoting accumulating
rainfall. The combination of cooler surface temperatures and
rainfall across the southern CONUS will mitigate large-scale 
wildfire-spread potential today.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Dec 14, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Dec 9, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2019

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are affecting parts of southern AZ this
morning ahead of a strong upper trough.  This activity will persist
this afternoon and spread into parts of NM and southwest TX.  

Other isolated thunderstorms are possible along a cold front moving
into the upper OH valley this afternoon, and into the lower MS
valley tonight.  Intensity and coverage of activity is expected to
be quite weak/sparse in both areas.

..Hart/Nauslar.. 12/09/2019

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SPC Dec 13, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Dec 8, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2019

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large and deep upper trough will likely cover the majority of the
CONUS early Tuesday morning. A southern-stream shortwave trough
embedded within the larger upper trough is expected to move across
TX throughout the period, reaching the Lower MS Valley by early
Wednesday morning. 

The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a
cold front extending from western NY southwestward to the TX Gulf
Coast. This front is forecast to progress eastward across much of
the eastern CONUS throughout the period. By 12Z Wednesday, this
front will likely be located from just off the NC coast
southwestward across northern FL and into the central Gulf of
Mexico. 

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are anticipated along and
behind the southern portion of this front, from the upper TX coast
across the Southeast states. Given that the southern-stream
shortwave trough will lag behind the front, relatively warm
mid-level temperatures are expected to be in place, limiting
instability. Despite robust vertical shear over the region, this
limited instability will temper storm strength and prevent storms
from reaching severe thresholds.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2019

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SPC Dec 14, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Dec 6, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected this period.

...Gulf Coast Region...
A strong and progressive shortwave trough over AR/LA will track
across the Gulf Coast states today, with an associated cluster of
showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of MS/AL/GA/FL.  The
low-level air mass ahead of the convection is not particularly
unstable and low-level wind fields are weak.  Therefore, storms are
expected to have limited intensity and pose little risk of severe
wind or hail.

...Pacific Northwest...
A large upper trough is approaching the CA/OR coast, with the
initial band of precipitation moving ashore this morning.  Cooling
temperatures aloft and persistent onshore flow will eventually pose
a risk of deep convection and a few lightning strikes later this
afternoon and tonight. Some small hail cannot be ruled out in the
stronger cores, but no severe weather is forecast.

..Hart/Jewell.. 12/06/2019

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SPC Dec 6, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Dec 6, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An expansive upper trough is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay
through southern CA early D4/Monday. Medium-range guidance is in
good agreement that this upper trough will gradually progress
eastward, accompanied by a strengthening wind field. By 
D6/Wednesday, strong mid-level flow (i.e. around 100 kt at 500mb) is
expected to extend throughout the southern periphery of this upper
trough, arcing from the northern Plains into the TN Valley and then
back through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

Despite this strong flow aloft, stable low-level conditions will
limit thunderstorm development throughout much of the week. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible along and immediately behind a cold front
across the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D4/Monday and Southeast on
D5/Tuesday. 

Active upper-air pattern is expected to persist through the end of
the week with medium-range guidance showing the potential for
another southern-stream shortwave at the end of the week. Poor model
agreement regarding the timing of this system leads to low
predictability, but the overall pattern may result in some severe
threat if sufficient moisture return occurs.

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