SPC Nov 12, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Nov 12, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A propensity for troughs to develop over the eastern half of the
CONUS will persist through the D4-8 period, with very little
thunderstorm potential as high pressure remains at the surface. An
exception to this rule will be on Friday/D4 over Florida, where a
cold front and compact shortwave trough will encounter a moistening
air mass ahead of a cold front. Rain and thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing Friday morning, prior to the front clearing the east
coast of Florida. While modest mid to upper winds will exist,
instability will be very weak. Therefore, little threat of severe
storms is expected Friday.

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SPC Nov 12, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Nov 11, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to indicate multiple shortwave troughs moving
southeastward across the CONUS during the D4-8 period, with several
cold fronts maintaining cool and stable conditions. The greatest
threat for thunderstorms will be over Florida and southern Georgia
Friday/D5 when a weak surface low forms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, related to a lead upper wave. This will induce southerly
surface winds aiding advection of upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints
over FL. MUCAPE is still forecast to be at or below 500 J/kg, with
clouds and rain likely hampering destabilization. In addition,
surface to midlevel winds will not be particularly strong. As such,
only marginally severe storms appear possible at this time, but the
event will continue to be monitored in coming days.

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SPC Nov 7, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Nov 7, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2019

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Non-severe thunderstorms may occur on Saturday across parts of the
Florida Peninsula.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Eastern Seaboard
into the western Atlantic on Saturday. A surface cold front is
forecast to move southward across south Florida. Thunderstorm
development may take place near the front and along sea breeze
boundaries during the day. Instability and deep-layer shear are
expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, the
potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS should remain low
Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2019

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