by SPC Forecast Products | Nov 12, 2024 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts
Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly
shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern
US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified
upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have
ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in
southern/central California and the Northeast.
...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible
shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the
Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday.
However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday.
Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record
high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced
during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some
forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and
where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be,
but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather
conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the
Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week
through the weekend.
...Southern/central California...
Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of
central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as
multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The
southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these
winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence
is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week,
which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on
Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if
trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent
extended outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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by SPC Forecast Products | Nov 12, 2024 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 12 21:42:01 UTC 2024.
by SPC Forecast Products | Nov 12, 2024 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 12 21:42:01 UTC 2024.
by SPC Forecast Products | Nov 12, 2024 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far
southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk
for hail and gusty winds.
...20Z Update...
The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk
probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here,
guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated
hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally
severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can
form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/
...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at
midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains
tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late
today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains
dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that
will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight.
Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur
north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface
dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F
into this evening.
It still appears likely that deep convective potential across
northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain
limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and
a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development
will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a
strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front
overtakes the lee trough.
While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning.
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by SPC Forecast Products | Nov 12, 2024 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning.
This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward
while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting
cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and
into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this
evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina
coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas.
Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging
builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast.
...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central
Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward
through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the
region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become
increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more
continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining
place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector,
particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the
western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear
should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any
severe probabilities with this outlook.
...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low
expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday
morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable
low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance
suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near
the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest
buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given
the limited spatial extent of this region and the general
uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities
were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe
needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases.
..Mosier.. 11/12/2024
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by SPC Forecast Products | Nov 12, 2024 | Weather and Emergency Alerts
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest
high-resolution forecast guidance and current dry/windy conditions.
Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions in
southwest Texas and along the Sierra Front. Locally elevated
conditions are also possible in the Appalachians from
Tennessee-North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia
border as southeast winds strengthen with some downslope enhancement
ahead of precipitation Wednesday night.
..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/
...Synopsis...
Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of
the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending
northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will
remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35
percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in
this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this
outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the
limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include
a Critical area at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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